Theoretical Climate and Paleoclimate Dynamics

We address mathematical and statistical aspects of climate and palaeoclimate dynamics. We use dynamical system theory, experiments with general circulation models, methods of inference (emulation, dynamical system calibration) and time-series analysis methods to characterise the dynamics of the climate system, estimate its predictability and identify physical mechanisms of variability.

Recent presentations

  • 12 May 2017: Astronomical and CO2 controls on the interglacial climates of the last 800,000 years, given at PAGES - 5th OSM at Zaragoza (Spain) (co-authored with Q. Yin, A. Berger) weblink
  • 30 November 2016: Stochastic dynamical systems to apprehend the climate system, given at 1st CVAS workshop "What do we know about multicentennial, multimillenial variability? at Hamburg (Germany) weblink
  • 18 November 2016: Le climat, given at Formation continuée en Développement durable at Namur weblink

Recent articles

  • M. Mitsui , M. Crucifix (2017) , Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study, Climate Dynamics 48 2729-2749 doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3235-z arxiv weblink
  • J. Carson, M. Crucifix, S. Preston, R. D. Wilkinson (2017) , Bayesian model selection for the glacial–interglacial cycle, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) n/a--n/a doi:10.1111/rssc.12222 arxiv weblink
  • P. C. Tzedakis, M. Crucifix, T. Mitsui, E. W. Wolff (2017) , A simple rule to determine which insolation cycles lead to interglacials, Nature 542 427–432 doi:10.1038/nature21364 weblink