Theoretical Climate and Paleoclimate Dynamics

We address mathematical and statistical aspects of climate and palaeoclimate dynamics. We use dynamical system theory, experiments with general circulation models, methods of inference (emulation, dynamical system calibration) and time-series analysis methods to characterise the dynamics of the climate system, estimate its predictability and identify physical mechanisms of variability.

Recent presentations

  • 30 May 2017: Model selection, parameter and state estimation with uncertain chronology, given at Meeting DAPS (Paleoclimate Reanalyses, Data Assimilation and Proxy System modeling) at Louvain-la-Neuve, BE (co-authored with J. Carson, R. Wilkinson, S. Preston) weblink
  • 30 June 2017: Pacing ice ages: the Plausible and the Doubtful', given at PEN - RECOVER Workshop at Dartington Hall weblink
  • 30 May 2017: Model selection, parameter and state estimation with uncertain chronology, given at Meeting DAPS (Paleoclimate Reanalyses, Data Assimilation and Proxy System modeling) at Louvain-la-Neuve, BE (co-authored with J. Carson, R. Wilkinson, S. Preston) weblink

Recent articles

  • J. Carson, M. Crucifix, S. Preston, R. D. Wilkinson (2018) , Bayesian model selection for the glacial–interglacial cycle, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 67 25-54 doi:10.1111/rssc.12222 arxiv weblink
  • P. Ditlevsen, M. Crucifix (2017) , On the importance of centennial variability for ice ages, Past Global Changes Magazine 25 152–153 doi:10.22498/pages.25.3.152 weblink
  • M. Crucifix, A. de Vernal, C. Franzke (2017) , Centennial climate change: The unknown variability zone, Past Global Changes Magazine 25 133–133 doi:10.22498/pages.25.3.133 weblink