Theoretical Climate and Paleoclimate Dynamics

We address mathematical and statistical aspects of climate and palaeoclimate dynamics. We use dynamical system theory, experiments with general circulation models, methods of inference (emulation, dynamical system calibration) and time-series analysis methods to characterise the dynamics of the climate system, estimate its predictability and identify physical mechanisms of variability.

Recent presentations

  • 30 May 2017: Model selection, parameter and state estimation with uncertain chronology, given at Meeting DAPS (Paleoclimate Reanalyses, Data Assimilation and Proxy System modeling) at Louvain-la-Neuve, BE (co-authored with J. Carson, R. Wilkinson, S. Preston) weblink
  • 10 November 2017: L’hypothèse Gaïa : 40 ans après, given at Cours du collège Belgique at Namur weblink
  • 30 June 2017: Pacing ice ages: the Plausible and the Doubtful', given at PEN - RECOVER Workshop at Dartington Hall weblink

Recent articles

  • M. P. Erb, C. S. Jackson, A. J. Broccoli, D. W. Lea, P. J. Valdes, M. Crucifix, P. N. DiNezio (2018) , Model evidence for a seasonal bias in Antarctic ice cores, Nature Communications 9 doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03800-0 weblink
  • M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S. P. Harrison, A. M. Haywood, J. H. Jungclaus, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, J. Y. Peterschmitt , A. Abe-Ouchi, S. Albani, P. J. Bartlein, C. Brierley, M. Crucifix, A. Dolan, L. Fernandez-Donado, H. Fischer, P. O. Hopcroft, R. F. Ivanovic, F. Lambert, D. J. Lunt , N. M. Mahowald, W. R. Peltier , S. J. Phipps, D. M. Roche, G. A. Schmidt, L. Tarasov, P. J. Valdes, Q. Zhang, T. Zhou (2018) , The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 -- Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan, Geoscientific Model Development 11 1033--1057 doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018 weblink
  • J. Rougier, M. Crucifix (2018) , Uncertainty in Climate Science and Climate Policy, Climate Modelling 361–380 doi:10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6_12 arxiv weblink