The research group managed by Michel Crucifix is part of the Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research of the Earth and Life Institute at the Université catholique de Louvain.

We address mathematical and statistical aspects of climate and palaeoclimate dynamics. We use dynamical system theory, experiments with general circulation models, methods of inference (emulation, dynamical system calibration) and time-series analysis methods to characterise the dynamics of the climate system, estimate its predictability and identify physical mechanisms of variability.

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Recent presentations

  • 30 November 2016: Stochastic dynamical systems to apprehend the climate system, given at 1st CVAS workshop "What do we know about multicentennial, multimillenial variability? at Hamburg (Germany) weblink
  • 18 November 2016: Le climat, given at Formation continuée en Développement durable at Namur weblink
  • 28 September 2016: Dynamics of Palaeoclimates. Lecture 3: Meta-modelling, given at Autumn school : "Dynamics of natural (eco)-systems: theory and applications", organised at the MichaelStifelCenter at Jena (Germany) weblink slides

Recent articles

  • M. Mitsui , M. Crucifix (2017) , Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study, Climate Dynamics 48 2729-2749 doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3235-z arxiv weblink
  • J. Carson, M. Crucifix, S. Preston, R. D. Wilkinson (2017) , Bayesian model selection for the glacial–interglacial cycle, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) n/a--n/a doi:10.1111/rssc.12222 arxiv weblink
  • P. C. Tzedakis, M. Crucifix, T. Mitsui, E. W. Wolff (2017) , A simple rule to determine which insolation cycles lead to interglacials, Nature 542 427–432 doi:10.1038/nature21364 weblink