Michel Crucifix

Hello, and welcome ! I am a research scientist with the National Fund of Scientific Research, and professor at the Université catholique de Louvain, at the George Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research. I have been working on climate dynamics and palaeoclimates since 1998, and specialised in modelling the dynamics of the climate system, with some emphasis on the phenomenon of ice ages. Ice ages is a global phenomenon that impacts on nearly every aspect of the climate system, and physical modelling requires to account for various processes including vegetation dynamics, ocean circulation response, ice sheet dynamics, isostasy, and biogeochemistry.

We learn about climate dynamics by identifying observed phenomena with behaviours developed by climate models. In this context, a model can be many things: a simple dynamical systems, an idealised hydrodynamic model, or a complex simulation machinery such as state-of-the-art global climate models. All of them can be useful. Since 2008, I have been particularly interested in statistical modelling approaches to calibrate, select, and investigate the sensitivity of climate models. This includes tools such as the Gaussian process emulator (for the analysis of complex climate models) and sequential Monte Carlo methods (for the calibration of dynamical systems).

Over the past five years my research team has been funded by an ERC Starting Grant that is now over, and it is now funded by the National Fund of Scientific Research as well as the Belgian Science Policy Office.

I teach Meteorology, Physics and dynamics of atmosphere and Ocean dynamics (2 modules), numerical methods in physics, physical geography, and advanced methods of climate modelling.

Member of ...

Contact details

  • Earth and Life Institute (ELI)
  • Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM)
  • Place Louis Pasteur 3, SC10 - L4.03.08
  • B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve Belgium
  • Tel: +32 (0) 10 47 33 00
  • E-mail: michel.crucifix (at) uclouvain.be

Recent articles...

  • P. A. Araya-Melo, M. Crucifix, N. Bounceur (2015) , Global sensitivity analysis of the Indian monsoon during the Pleistocene, Climate of the Past 11 45--61 doi:10.5194/cp-11-45-2015
  • T. Mitsui, M. Crucifix (2015) , Effects of noise on the dynamics of glacial cycles, INdAM Springer Series submitted
  • T. Mitsui, M. Crucifix, K. Aihara (2015) , Bifurcations and strange nonchaotic attractors in a phase oscillator model of glacial-interglacial cycles, Physica D submitted after minor revisions
  • N. Bounceur, M. Crucifix, R. D. Wilkinson (2014) , Global sensitivity analysis of the climate-vegetation system to astronomical forcing: an emulator-based approach, Earth System Dynamics Discussions 5 901--943 doi:10.5194/esdd-5-901-2014
  • J. C. Rougier , M. Crucifix (2014) , Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy, Conceptual Foundations in Climate Modeling (eds: L. Lloyd , E. Winsberg ) (arxiv available at arxiv:1411.6878)

Recent presentations...

  • 6 December 2014: Océan et Atmosphère : que peut-on prévoir et à quelle échelle de temps ?, given at Séance de la Classe des Sciences de l'Académie royale de Belgique at Brussels [link] doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.1286808
  • 16 October 2014: Understanding the current challenges in climate modelling: dynamics, thermodynamics and statistics, given at BNCGG Conferences at Brussels
  • 15 September 2014: On the predictability of glacial-interglacial climate change, given at Lecture 9 of IDP2 of Department of Earth Sciences at Reading, UK [link]
  • 2 April 2014: Calibration and selection of stochastic palaeoclimate models, given at Internal seminar - Royal Meteorogical Institute at Brussels (co-authored with J. Carson, S. Preston, R. D. Wilkinson , J. Rougier) doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.991716
  • 20 September 2015: On the predictability of glacial-interglacial climate change, given at Lecture 9 of IDP2 of Department of Earth Sciences at Reading, UK [link]