The group Theoretical Climate and Palaeoclimates Dynamics managed by Michel Crucifix is part of the Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research, itself included in the Earth and Life Institute of the Université catholique de Louvain.

We address mathematical and statistical aspects of climate and palaeoclimate dynamics. We use dynamical system theory, experiments with general circulation models, methods of inference (emulation, dynamical system calibration) and time-series analysis methods to characterise the dynamics of the climate system, estimate its predictability and identify physical mechanisms of variability.

Over the past five years the team has been funded by an ERC Starting Grant that is now over, and it is now funded by the National Fund of Scientific Research as well as the Belgian Science Policy Office.

Recent presentations...

  • 25 March 2015: (Palaeo-)climate sensitivity: ideas and definitions from the NPG literature, given at Ringberg Grand Challenge Workshop: Earth's Climate Sensitivities at Ringberg (Munich) [link] doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.1357896
  • 6 December 2014: Océan et Atmosphère : que peut-on prévoir et à quelle échelle de temps ?, given at Séance de la Classe des Sciences de l'Académie royale de Belgique at Brussels [link] doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.1286808
  • 16 October 2014: Understanding the current challenges in climate modelling: dynamics, thermodynamics and statistics, given at BNCGG Conferences at Brussels

Recent articles...

  • P. A. Araya-Melo, M. Crucifix, N. Bounceur (2015) , Global sensitivity analysis of the Indian monsoon during the Pleistocene, Climate of the Past 11 45--61 doi:10.5194/cp-11-45-2015
  • T. Mitsui, M. Crucifix (2015) , Effects of noise on the dynamics of glacial cycles, INdAM Springer Series submitted
  • T. Mitsui, M. Crucifix, K. Aihara (2015) , Bifurcations and strange nonchaotic attractors in a phase oscillator model of glacial-interglacial cycles, Physica D submitted after minor revisions